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Reconciliation Post Reply     Print Topic    
User Topic: "Stats say 100% chance of affair recurrence"...
blakesteele
♂ Member
Member # 38044
Default  Posted: 8:49 PM, September 11th (Wednesday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

I live, breath and eat sadistics...er, I mean statistics. My job constantly has to do with production numbers and budget tracking. I am also analytical.

I have read tens of books on infidelity, paying close attention to percentages and trying to figure odds on recurring adultery within the marriage.

I agree with some posters here that studies are highly subjective....really have to know the who was in the study group.

I am no expert, just read a lot.

Here is what I believe somewhere between 30 and 80 percent of all marriages will have adultery be a part of them. That is a HUGE range, but think it has to be large as many affairs either go unreported or they survive and never are spoke of. So that means on the low end 1 in 3, and on the high end 3 in 4 will have adultery.

Not great odds....but not 100% either. Didn't we all think OUR marriages stood 100% chance of NEVER having adultery enter them?

Don't let this freak you out more.

I have read many books...written by Doctors, with case studies throughout....also written by clergymen and average people who have survived infidelity.

What has become clear to me is that WS have choices...they chose badly in the past. But if they have the desire to learn from their mistakes.....almost none of them repeat their adulterous ways. That is not to say all marriages survive adultery....but if a couple decides to D after the A, adultery is not an option. See?

What I believe is that, looking at statistics (and assuming adultery is NOT a deal breaker for the BS), the odds are GREATLY in your favor that a WS will not have another affair IF the couple is willing to process through this offensive act together. Your WS has been given an opportunity to gain wisdom....sounds like he is at least willing to take a few steps down a new path. You have some staying power because you are here...and I can see it in your post.

Your fWH NOW knows better, and CAN choose to do better. This is where a counselor can really help out....speaking from experience, my counselor was able to help me examine myself in areas I did not even know existed in me. She has done the same for my wife. I believe in good counseling.

If you guys decide not to process this together (or just one of you decides this)....D is an option.

If D happens, your next relationship has greater odds of having adultery enter it then your existing marriage does....just by looking at the statistics.

I mean for this to be encouraging......I am sorry if it sounds like Vegas betting advice.

M is no game. This is the big league...the greatest test of a relationship between two humans.

In my sitch, I believe my wife simply did not know better....her affair did creep into her life. Sure, there was a point when it was a conscious decision and controlling, driving force in her life....a force that smothered all other aspects of her life out. BUT initially she did not know better.


I, too, have learned things about me that make me want to do better.

It is this combined internal drive of two people that CAN propel our marriages from the ditch they are to a new and improved road.

Definitely find a new counselor. I would guess she has issues that would not allow her to be the help you need right now. How could she make a statement like that without even meeting your husband. Our counselor observed us for several sessions before making any statements regarding our chances.

Long post....hang in there....don't panic on this 100% comment. It is bogus.

God be with us all.

[This message edited by blakesteele at 8:58 PM, September 11th (Wednesday)]


ME: 42 BH, I don't PM female members
SHE: 38 EA
Married: 15 years
Together: 17 years
D/Day 9-10-12
NC: 10-25-12
NC: Broken early November 2012, OM not respond
2 girls; 7 and 10
Fear is payments on debts you have not

Posts: 3411 | Registered: Jan 2013 | From: Central Missouri
blakesteele
♂ Member
Member # 38044
Default  Posted: 9:00 PM, September 11th (Wednesday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Quick summary.....

Pre-A...my wife nor I believed this would happen to us. No boundaries...A happened.

Post-A...my wife and I believe it could happen tomorrow. Boundaries...A much less likely to happen.

You cant prepare for danger if you never suspect danger is lurking!

You have both had your eyes opened to the dangers to your marriage....4 eyes are better then two.

God be with you.


ME: 42 BH, I don't PM female members
SHE: 38 EA
Married: 15 years
Together: 17 years
D/Day 9-10-12
NC: 10-25-12
NC: Broken early November 2012, OM not respond
2 girls; 7 and 10
Fear is payments on debts you have not

Posts: 3411 | Registered: Jan 2013 | From: Central Missouri
cruelty
New Member
Member # 35951
Default  Posted: 9:07 PM, September 11th (Wednesday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

If you wanted statistics, you could consult research articles and such.
You went to a clinician--one who treats individuals dealing with specific situations.
You are not a large group of marriages. You are you. Find someone who will deal with you. If you want to give it another shot, express yourself. See what happens. If she is worried that you are setting yourself up for disappointment --you can discuss that. Her worry is not yours to carry, but if you explore it, maybe you'll have an interesting challenging dynamic.


"The trick to forgetting the big picture is to look at everything close up" -Chuck Palahniuk

Posts: 33 | Registered: Jun 2012
sisoon
♂ Member
Member # 31240
Default  Posted: 9:55 PM, September 11th (Wednesday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

I'm really sorry you have to deal with this on top of being betrayed.

I generally ask for citations of statistics and for sources of quotes, too.

Here are some that are supposedly from a peer-reviewed journal, but I haven't tracked down the sources, so I don't know anything about the methods used, and 'social science' methods sometimes are hard to comprehend. http://www.statisticbrain.com/infidelity-statistics/

I, too, have a hard time understanding her purpose in citing those numbers, and they're so questionable that I have a hard time understanding why she believes them.

But it sounds very much worth while asking her what she meant and how she can help you, since she believes what you want is impossible.


fBH (me) - 65+, fWW (her) - 65+, Married 45+, together since 1965
DDay - 12/2010
Recovered, not yet fully R'ed
I share my own experience because it's the only experience I know, not because I'm a good model.

Posts: 9742 | Registered: Feb 2011 | From: Chicago area
1DumbHusband
♂ Member
Member # 40239
Default  Posted: 10:58 PM, September 11th (Wednesday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

If statistics were everything or the end all be all, my beautiful BS would never have graduated high school or college based upon her upbringing and surroundings. She was accepted to medical school but left for personal reasons. Needless to say, statistics don't always equal truth.


Me: FWH 34
Her: 31 and deserving much better than I've given her (CCW82)
Married 4 years, together 6 years.
D-Day: June 17th, 2013
"Don't give up. You're married until you're not. You never know what tomorrow will bring."

Posts: 121 | Registered: Aug 2013 | From: Dallas
HurtButHopeful?
♀ Member
Member # 25144
Default  Posted: 11:19 PM, September 11th (Wednesday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Staying M after an A is hard even when the WS is doing everything right.

I'd find an IC who is supportive of trying to R.


Reconciliation means that we both are authentic and vulnerable. I still have my H, and he's a better man than ever!

Posts: 1716 | Registered: Aug 2009
crossroads2010
♀ Member
Member # 30213
Default  Posted: 11:31 PM, September 11th (Wednesday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

I am 4 years past dday and don't know (or care) what the stats are...I am still trying to process what this has done to me and redefine me and my marriage.

Fortunately I had an IC who focused on helping me pull the pieces of me back together...not on saving or tossing out my marriage. I am pretty sure she had an opinion on that but I don't think she felt it was her role as my IC. I think it is great that your H is in IC also...wish mine would have gone, but maybe an IC that is not connected to your H would be better for you. I did not feel comfortable with my 1st IC, so only saw him a few times. Then, after a few months, I was such a basket case, I tried one referred by a friend and continued seeing her every week, then every few weeks, then monthly for about a year. You may want to try another IC. You are very early in this process and have a lot to sort through.


Posts: 572 | Registered: Nov 2010
kickboxer
♀ Member
Member # 39858
Default  Posted: 11:39 PM, September 11th (Wednesday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

I feel soooooooooo much better after reading your replies.

I seriously wondered for a minute if this was common knowledge the rest of the world was privy to, but I had never heard of -- 100%!!!

That would mean all the 3+A people in R here -- all the 3+A reconciliation stories I've sought out for inspiration -- all the pain -- all the everything......for what?

For a sure fire repeat offense?

I kept thinking to myself all the way home..."WOW! All these people who also dig in their heels, fight through the ugly, go to IC/MC...people who also want to survive this disaster --> you mean to tell me they KNOW there's a 100% chance that it's going to happen again, and they still stay? WTH is wrong with me for hearing that and wanting to run for my life?!?!?!?!"

I feel so much calmer now. Thank you for the validation!

blakesteele -- thank you a zillion times over for your thoughtful analytic analysis!


BW - 42 (Me)
WH - 39 (2 ONS, 6m EA)
Married 13 years, 3 children
DD: 7/13/13
Status: Rugsweeping, I guess.

Posts: 248 | Registered: Jul 2013 | From: Somewhere Out There
ladya
♀ Member
Member # 29184
Default  Posted: 5:21 AM, September 12th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

I would not worry about stats and fire the counselor. She doesn't seem to be pro-marriage. She is telling you the odds are against you without ever talking to either one of you other than intake. She needs to go.


Me:BS married 29 yrs.
5 kids

Time really does heal.
EA D-Day May 2008
PA D-Day May 7,2010 (same A)


Posts: 883 | Registered: Jul 2010
2married2quit
♂ Member
Member # 36555
Default  Posted: 8:33 AM, September 12th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Scares the shit out of me too, but how am I suppose to know what the future may bring. To me it's all in the hands of the WS. Not the stats, not the counselor but HIM.


BS - Me 43 WS - Her 41
DDAY - June 2012 (found the texts)
DDAY2 - Next Day (found out who) EA
TT- till 9/2012 (some PA)
Married 20yrs. 2kids
Status: in careful R. Sometimes spinning our wheels

Posts: 1221 | Registered: Aug 2012 | From: USA
IRN2006
♀ Member
Member # 23717
Default  Posted: 8:41 AM, September 12th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

My DH is a recovering SA.

Recovery numbers are pretty dismal. Yet, he so far, has "beaten the odds."

However, that doesn't mean that I can go on assuming he'll stay sober continually for the next 50 years.

It does mean, that I now know what my husband is fully capable of. And I need to be able to manage the risks of staying with him.


Posts: 1295 | Registered: Apr 2009
heforgotme
♀ Member
Member # 38391
Default  Posted: 9:40 AM, September 12th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Absolutely nothing in life is 100%. Nothing.

I would switch counselors.


D-Day 11/15/12
5 month PA
Married 20 years, 3 kids
All good is hard. All evil is easy. Dying, losing, cheating, and mediocrity is easy. Stay away from easy.
- Scott Alexander
It was the day I thought I'd never get through - Daughtry

Posts: 1065 | Registered: Feb 2013 | From: FL
84CF
♂ Member
Member # 40112
Default  Posted: 9:58 AM, September 12th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

I'm speaking as a bitter BH here, so take what I say with a grain of salt if you like. However, while it is absolutely true that very few things in life are 100% certain, you might not drop your counselor just yet.

What I mean to say is that you don't necessarily want your therapist to agree with you all the time. You absolutely want a therapist who is sympathetic and kind to you, supportive and wise, thoughtful and sharp. But sometimes being kind is to tell it like it is. Your therapist *may* simply be trying not to sugar-coat the reality of your situation: a past history of multiple affairs is a very good predictor of a future of multiple affairs. It is that simple.

I am someone who wants more than anything to believe that my WW will decide to change her behavior. She is, after all, the person whom I love more than anyone else in the world. What I need from my therapist is someone who can help me to see the reality of the situation for what it is -- kindly, thoughtfully, caringly, but also firmly and honestly. My therapist would not be helping me if she were not firm and honest about how she sees the reality of the situation. And that is the key: I know it is how my therapist sees the situation, and that she has a different perspective on my life than I could possibly have. Providing me with a different, often clearer perspective is only helpful. Ultimately it is my choice to do with the information what I will: my therapist knows that, and I know that.


Posts: 54 | Registered: Jul 2013
wert
♂ Member
Member # 34478
Default  Posted: 9:58 AM, September 12th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Absolutely nothing in life is 100%. Nothing.

Accept death, naturally.

Accepting you inability to control the situation is the first step in working through it.

Change IC now.

If I trusted stats I would not have M'd in the first place. I am reconciled. My W has not cheated again. So not %100. Yet.

"Predictions are difficult, especially ones about the future" - Niels Bohr

take care...



Posts: 1410 | Registered: Jan 2012
idiot85
♂ Member
Member # 38934
Default  Posted: 10:50 AM, September 12th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Accept death, naturally.

Wert! I'm immortal until proven otherwise!

It's true though- it's one of the few certainties and I would say change your IC. Negativity breeds negativity. You need someone to help you through not fire off statistics.

With human beings nothing (bar above) is certain.

[This message edited by idiot85 at 10:50 AM, September 12th (Thursday)]


BH-29 (me)
WW-28

Multi famam, conscientiam, pauci verentur.


Posts: 575 | Registered: Apr 2013 | From: Old Blighty
StillGoing
♂ Member
Member # 28571
Default  Posted: 12:39 PM, September 12th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Accept death, naturally.

cake or death?


“Fate is a fickle bitch who dotes on irony.”

Posts: 7348 | Registered: May 2010 | From: USA
hopefullromantic
♀ Member
Member # 16652
Default  Posted: 12:45 PM, September 12th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

But sometimes being kind is to tell it like it is. Your therapist *may* simply be trying not to sugar-coat the reality of your situation: a past history of multiple affairs is a very good predictor of a future of multiple affairs. It is that simple.

I agree with 84. I think she is preparing you for an uphill battle. I wouldn't quit her just yet.

That said, I do think it matters whether those A's were all before any kind of dday or after. A serial cheater could go for yrs without ever being caught so the behavior becomes habit forming. However, once being caught, and therefore forced to work on themselves and developing better coping skills, I believe they could change, but I still think the odds are lower than for someone who only cheated once. Someone who cheats, is caught, and then cheats again....I believe their odds go down with every subsequent A. And why not? They've gotten away with it so far.

But I'm no expert, I'm only basing my opinion on several years of reading here at SI and many books about infidelity.


It's not really a fairy tale 'till the witch is deposed and a few dragons are slain

Posts: 1736 | Registered: Oct 2007
kickboxer
♀ Member
Member # 39858
Default  Posted: 2:49 PM, September 12th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

I'm not going to walk away just yet.

We have a bit if a unique situation in that my husband has been seeing her partner...who is also her husband.

It could go either way...

Not only are they experienced in working/communicating with each other while helping couples both individually and jointly, but they are also a married couple who can attest to the real life challenges that exist in marriage and longevity.

OR

One doesn't want to upset the other when we begin digging through our history. They're each loyal to the client they've built a rapport with, but no matter how professional they tow the line, there's an understanding that it becomes personal if one disagrees with the other and holds their ground.

Right now I feel like everything we're dealing with is based on chances. There's a chance history will repeat itself. There's a chance it won't. There's a chance this therapy arrangement could be a blessing. There's a chance it could be a curse. There's a chance I'll wake up tomorrow. There's a chance I won't.

My husband is REALLY happy with his IC experience (he's been going for about 4-5 weeks), so I don't want to upset the apple cart by leaving without giving it a fair chance.

By the same token, I don't want to be in a situation where I feel I must constantly defend my position.

I want to support my husband the best way I can to become the friend, lover, and man that I know he is capable of.

I want to build a marriage that will foster a safe, loving environment for each of us, and our children.

I want to celebrate our 50th wedding anniversary one day, and look back at this time as just being a bump in the road.

Of those things, I am 100% sure.


BW - 42 (Me)
WH - 39 (2 ONS, 6m EA)
Married 13 years, 3 children
DD: 7/13/13
Status: Rugsweeping, I guess.

Posts: 248 | Registered: Jul 2013 | From: Somewhere Out There
tushnurse
♀ Member
Member # 21101
Default  Posted: 2:59 PM, September 12th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Well I'm sure there is some study or two out there that says that or soemthing similar. That's the cool thing about Statistics, the whole reason EVERYONE has to take it in college is that you understand numbers can be manipulated in anyway you want.

That being said and the unique situation of the counselors I would say maybe she was trying to just put reality right up in your face, so that you know what the gig is. What to expect, and how much work that has to be done to "beat those odds".

I would go into your next appointment, and flat out ask her what her point was in telling you that so abruptly. I would also ask her what she feels needs to happen in a relationship for it to heal from A. If you and her are on totally different pages, no point in wasting your time.

She may be a no nonesense, cut the crap type of therapist, and they are few in and far between from what I have seen. But she may just want you to really stop and think about what you really want. How your plan to get there.

I remember I went to IC exactly one time after Dday, the funny thing was it took about a month to get in, and I was already finding my strong, and had my plan in place. I had also found a ton of support here.
I gave him my story, and my plan, and he looked at me and said, ok so what do you want from me? I said I guess to know that I'm not crazy, and I've got my head on straight. He basically told me that I was doing well would be fine, and would be happy to tell me that each week. So needless to say I never went back.

I'm still mostly sane too.


Me: FBS
Him: FWS
Kids: 15 & 17
Married for 22 years now, was 16 at the time. .
D-Day Sept 26 2008
Fully R'd, and Happy Happy Happy

Posts: 7792 | Registered: Oct 2008 | From: St. Louis
crazyblindsided
♀ Member
Member # 35215
Default  Posted: 5:04 PM, September 12th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

My WH has had more than one A, but there were no life changing consequences like after this last A. Stats at 100% is almost a guarantee, but not if the WS truly wants to help themselves. Alcoholics don't get clean overnight they have to want to.

I made my decision based on how badly WH wants this M and so far I see he wants to change. He doesn't want to lose me or the kids and he doesn't like the person he has become. My WH is at rock bottom right now, working his way back up.

I might look around at therapists, sometimes they aren't a good fit. I know our MC wasn't.


BS/FWS (me):40 Madhatter
WS/BS:42 Serial Cheater
Together 18 years, Married 13
DD(10) DS(7)
DDay(s) 5/08, 5/09, 3/30/12
Final Dday 7/11/14 Affair never ended

Posts: 2266 | Registered: Apr 2012 | From: California
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